Types of Total Bases Bets
Knowing and understanding the different types of total bases bets allows you to customize your betting strategy and wager to your knowledge and risk tolerance.
| Bet Type | How It Works | Focus | Considerations |
| Over/Under | Predict total bases above or below a line | Individual player | Player’s power, opposing pitcher, ballpark |
| Head-to-Head | Predict which player gets more total bases | Player vs. player | Both players’ skills, matchup |
| Team Total Bases | Predict total bases above or below a line | Team’s offense | Lineup strength, opposing pitching staff, ballpark |
How To Bet on Total Bases
Total bases betting revolves around predicting a player’s or team’s offensive production, measured in bases gained from hits. Bookmakers offer various bet types:
- Over/Under: Will the player/team exceed or fall short of a set total?
- Head-to-Head: Which of two players will rack up more bases?
Now, let’s dive deeper into how to make informed bets:
Power Hitter vs. Contact Hitter
With their ability to generate extra-base hits, power hitters are your go-to option for overbets. Look for players with high slugging percentages, home run rates, and Isolated Power (ISO). It is a stat that isolates a player’s pure slugging by removing batting average and on-base percentage.
On the other hand, contact hitters who consistently put the ball in play but lack raw power are better fit for head-to-head matchups against similar hitters. Here, factors like batting average and on-base percentage become more important. It is because these players are more likely to rack up singles that contribute to their total base count.
Analyze the Player’s Recent Form
Don’t get fooled by season-long stats alone. Look at the player’s recent performance to determine his current hitting form. Is the player on a hot streak, consistently reaching base and hitting for extra bases? Or are they going through a cold spell with strikeouts and weak contact? Recent form can drastically impact a player’s total base output. So consider the player’s last week or two of performance when making your wager.
Understand Matchup
This goes beyond just the pitcher’s ERA or WHIP. Analyzing historical data is fundamental. Does the batter have a history of success against this particular pitcher or against pitchers with similar handedness and pitching styles? Dig into their head-to-head stats, focusing on batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage against the pitcher or similar pitchers.
Consider the Ballpark Factor
Not all ballparks are created equal. Some stadiums are notorious for being “hitter-friendly” due to factors like:
- Short Fences
- Thin Air
- Wind
Short Fences allow more fly balls to clear the wall for home runs, inflating total base counts. In addition, Ballparks located at higher altitudes can experience “thin air,” which reduces air resistance and allows the ball to travel farther.
So this can lead to more extra-base hits, especially doubles and triples. Strong winds blowing out towards the outfield can significantly increase the distance a ball travels. Pay close attention to the wind direction and speed, as it can heavily influence home run totals.
Focus on Advanced Stats
Don’t just rely on basic stats like batting average. Instead, go deeper. Advanced metrics like ISO (Isolated Power) and wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) can give you a serious edge in total bases betting.
Isolated Power (ISO)
ISO measures a player’s raw power, focusing on extra-base hits. It is a simple calculation: Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average. The higher the ISO, the more likely a player is to hit for extra bases, making them prime candidates for “over” bets on total bases.
Let’s say Kyle Schwarber has a .230 batting average and a .520 slugging percentage. His ISO is .290, indicating a very good amount of power potential. If Kyle’s total bases line is set at 2.5, his high ISO suggests they have a decent chance of exceeding it with a couple of extra-base hits. I am saying this because Kyle has a history of launching home runs.
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
wOBA is a more broad measure of offensive value than batting average. It considers all the different ways a player can reach base and assigns weights based on their run-scoring value. A high wOBA suggests a player consistently gets on base and produces runs, making them a strong candidate for total bases bets.
Let’s consider Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Freeman has a career batting average of around .280, but his wOBA consistently exceeds .380. It indicates he’s reaching base at a high rate and contributing to his team’s offense. Even if his power numbers are not off the charts, his ability to get on base frequently increases his chances of accumulating total bases through singles, doubles, and the occasional home run.
ISO and wOBA: The Winning Formula
Combining ISO and wOBA can paint a more complete picture of a player’s offensive potential. Some experts at Casombie say that a player with a high ISO and a high wOBA is the ideal candidate for total bases bets. They have both the power to hit for extra bases and the ability to consistently get on base, maximizing their chances of racking up total bases.
Also Read: What is 3 Way Betting in Football
Mastering Total Bases is Your Path to Winning Bets
As we have seen, successful total bases betting goes beyond simply picking your favorite slugger. It demands a deep understanding of player profiles, matchups, advanced stats, and even the weather. By applying these elements to your analysis, you can get value and have more informed wagers. Remember, it is not always about the big names; sometimes, the most profitable bets lie in the under-the-radar matchups. So, dive into the data, trust your analysis, and start racking up those winning bets.
